MLB The Show 25's March to October simulation mode is one of the most fascinating features of the game, offering players a chance to watch entire seasons unfold without touching the controller. While some see it as a fun way to test hypothetical lineups or MLB The Show 25 Stubs explore “what-if” scenarios, it's also an interesting window into how the game's prediction engine evaluates team strength. This year, the focus has fallen squarely on one team: the New York Mets.

Each season, the game highlights seven Tier One teams as the “favorites” to reach the postseason, projecting these squads to finish with 91 wins or more. For 2025, the elite seven included the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, and Baltimore Orioles. These teams are chosen based on a combination of roster ratings, player health, and statistical projections, with an emphasis on balanced lineups and strong rotations. On paper, they are expected to dominate their divisions and cruise into October baseball.

However, MLB The Show 25's simulations have a surprising habit of defying expectations. In the latest simulation results, four of the seven Tier One favorites failed to make the playoffs. Among these, the Mets' collapse was the most dramatic. Despite being projected as a top-tier contender with a deep pitching staff and star-studded lineup, the simulation saw the Mets stumble in ways that no other Tier One team did.

Why the Mets Struggle in Simulation

There are several reasons why the Mets consistently underperform in MLB The Show 25's simulations. First, while the game values player ratings heavily, it also factors in consistency and variance. Teams with elite stars but shaky depth are vulnerable to random losing streaks. The Mets, despite their high-profile talent, are loaded with players who have inconsistent performance in the game's statistical model. High-power hitters may go cold for long stretches, and even a top-rated pitcher can have “bad luck” games that snowball over a simulated season.

Second, the simulation engine accounts for injuries and fatigue at a more granular level than many players realize. Pitching rotations with heavy workloads can lead to a string of losses, especially against teams with solid contact hitters. In the Mets' case, a combination of starter injuries and bullpen blowups created multiple losing streaks, which the simulation compounded over the course of the 162-game season.

Finally, divisional dynamics play a huge role. Even with a strong roster, the Mets are competing in a tough National League East that includes the Braves and Phillies—both of which have solid rotations and depth. The simulation treats head-to-head matchups realistically, meaning that even slight weaknesses against these divisional rivals can result in dramatic swings in playoff probability. In contrast, teams like the Dodgers or Yankees benefit from easier divisional schedules and more consistent lineups, making their path to October far smoother.

The Numbers Behind the Collapse

In the simulation, the Mets' projected win total of 91 fell drastically short. While exact numbers vary slightly between simulation runs, the Mets frequently finished in the mid-80s, well below the threshold for playoff qualification. What makes this collapse particularly noteworthy is how it compares to other Tier One teams. The Phillies, Braves, and Orioles also missed the postseason in some simulations, but their shortfalls were minor relative to the Mets' dramatic underperformance.

The Mets' struggles are compounded by their pitching variance. Even with ace-level starters, random walks, early-inning homers, and bullpen errors created negative streaks that the simulation could not “correct” over the season. Offensive production was also inconsistent, as star hitters occasionally experienced prolonged slumps. In combination, these factors produced one of the more extreme examples of a Tier One favorite failing to meet expectations.

What This Means for Players

For gamers, the Mets' simulated struggles are both a warning and an opportunity. Those relying on the March to October mode to predict real-life outcomes may want to treat simulation results with caution, especially for teams with high-rated but volatile rosters. The Mets' failures highlight the importance of roster depth, bullpen stability, and consistent hitting—not just star power.

At the same time, observing the Mets' collapse in simulation can be instructive for Diamond Dynasty players. Understanding where the team tends to fail—whether in clutch situations, late innings, or against divisional rivals—can guide card selection, lineup adjustments, and rotation management. Players can experiment with substitutions, pitcher matchups, and defensive positioning to see how different choices affect outcomes, essentially turning the simulation into a training tool for real gameplay.

Conclusion

MLB The Show 25's simulation engine provides a fascinating lens into team performance, but it is not infallible. Among Tier One favorites, the Mets have emerged as the poster child for unexpected collapse, consistently missing the playoffs despite projected dominance. The reasons are clear: roster volatility, pitching variance, and tough divisional competition.

For fans and players, this serves as a reminder that success in baseball—simulated or real—is never guaranteed. Star power is important, but consistency, depth, and adaptability often make the difference between playoff glory and cheap MLB Stubs  disappointment. In the case of the Mets, MLB The Show 25 has turned what should have been a story of dominance into a cautionary tale: even favorites can fall, and sometimes spectacularly so.